Showing posts with label Economia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economia. Show all posts

Monday, July 8, 2013

Complexity in Economics

The subject of my deep interest are Complex Adaptive Systems and the way this theory has developed over the years to be applied to a variety of subjects and situations. have recently become somewhat more informed on the subject of the recent global economic crisis and how it has been a breaking point for the redefinition of the complete economic system. The 2008 economic crisis has had such a deep impact on world economy, that after over 4 years of having passed through times of deep turmoil and uncertainty, I have found no conclusive evidence that any nations has taken any specific, solid action towards even implying that this will not happen again.

In fact, the foundations of the current economic system have been maintained as if nothing had happened. Gruesome assumptions which became clear in a somewhat pathetic fashion, were well reflected by Alan Greenspan, Head of the Federal reserve at the time (2008), when declaring in front of the US congress, stating bluntly that he did not anticipate institutions or private companies would proceed in any other direction than in the utmost benefit of its shareholders. He at that hearing accepted he believed in the markets and their supposed power to restore equilibrium, condition which never arrived.

If we consider Mr. Greenspan to be one of the most respected and powerful men in the world economy at the time, this statement is baffling. How could he not have seen this crisis coming? In the aftermath, from Chile, a corner of the world that has followed the Monetarist doctrines faithfully,and a country which has diligently opened up its economy to the world according to the school of Chicago's gospel, I can respectfully say that the due reflections on the real causes of the crisis have not yet been carried out. The crisis has somewhat been left behind, maybe because we did not experience it first hand, and due to soaring commodity prices and increased internal demand due to 2010 earthquake reconstruction activities.

Our main universities are still far away from having an independent knowledge generating process, and have since the time of the military dictatorship, been in charge of producing generation after generation of economists who firmly defend the dogma of the free market economy, without so much as a thread of doubt regarding the foundations of the doctrine. The reasons for this may be multiple, such as a high percentage of Catholicism in the country, the effect of a repressive regime in the formation of alternate theories or independent thought, and the overhanging shadow of the US over Latin America, both through international investment as well as in the formation of minds in their elite campuses, minds that have taken, and still hold the main administrative seats in the economic direction of the country and the education policies at Chile's main Universities.

The foundations of the doctrine are clearly shaky, have been for over 50 years, and these weaknesses have been much more evident since the crisis, and even more so after Mr. Greenspan's words before congress. However, Chile apparently has not taken notice so far.

During 2011 I was in my second year pursuing a master's degree in Industrial Engineering at one of the most conservative and traditional universities in the country, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. This University was the think tank of the military dictatorship's economic team, elite which was educated mostly at Chicago's school of Business. I will not easily forget a macroeconomics class when, driven by the evident accumulation of assumptions for the construction of the economic model, I felt compelled to ask whether the moral aspect was ever present in the formation of economic policies, since the discussion had got to the point where externalities were being explained as inevitably having to be absorbed and assumed by the community housing the generator of the externality. Additionally, and following strictly the "invisible hand" dogma, this externality generator only thought about what maximized his own position.

How could this be regarded as the intention of an economic model which is there to maximize the well-being of society? Clearly there were some big winners and some big losers, and in that aspect, following my own experience when confronted with situations where great inequality was caused by my doing, a sense of social responsibility (ethics), I considered also drove actions.

Much to my dismay, my question was quickly discarded by the professor, a middle-aged economist with the usual credentials for professor at the university, a PhD at a US university, many years of teaching experience and little to no published papers. His argument was simply that the ethical question was not something relevant at the level of policy making, where an ethical process was expected, and rather the ethical controls were mainly applied to the organization, the middle management and operators.

Well, that is just great, i thought to myself. What I carried out with me that day was the deeper conviction that the ethical aspect of business was being ignored by those who needed it the most, and this attitude of no ethics for me, but indeed to those who work for me, is something that can be felt at the worker level as actually widespread in the Chilean idiosyncrasy.

I have therefore welcomed the real-world economics review as a fruitful source of fresh thinking in regard with the economics which affects the people on the street, and urge anyone interested in educating him/herself into alternate ways of thinking about the society that should be built through the knowledge of relevant economics, to investigate further, keep a close watch over the World Economics Association (please note how suspiciously little information can be found in internet regarding this organization) and begin to take part in the discussion.

What does this have to do with Complexity? Well, the economy can also benefit very much from having a Complex adaptive system model approach, proposal still in a nascent state, but which has been explored so far by researchers such as Dirk Helbing in articles such as Rethinking economics using complexity theory .

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Dinamica de multitudes y propuestas de diseño / Crowd Dynamics and design proposals

Un interesante paper de investigacion donde se analizan una serie de situación de flujo de multitudes, y donde se proponen alternativas de diseño para evitar los efectos no deseados mas comunes en estas situaciones.

An interesting research paper where crowd dynamics in flow situations are analyzed, and design considerations are proposed to avoid their most usual unwanted results.

Self-Organized pedestrian crowd dynamics, experiments simulations and design solutions

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Dinamica de redes por estudio de muestras / Sample study of network dynamics


El estudio de redes por medio de teoría de grafos, por ejemplo, nos puede llevar a mejor entender la distribución de información a través de la red. Un caso muy particular es la dinámica en el contagio de enfermedades. Dependiendo del contacto que cada nodo tenga con otros nodos de la red, esto influirá directamente en el esparcimiento del contagio.

Sin embargo, configurar grafos de redes sociales no es un tema simple, dado que estas redes tienden a esparcirse muy rápidamente, y en un contexto social es muy raro el caso donde todos los contactos entre agentes estén restringidos a solo unos cientos de individuos. Cualquier estudio de distribución de contactos debe incluir varios miles de agentes para poder contener alguna información de valor.

Dentro de este contexto, existen estudios para intentar explicar dinamicas de contagio al tomar solo algunas muestras de la poblacion y estudiar sus relaciones de primer nivel.

Ver estudio (en ingles) aqui


The study of Networks through graph theory, for instance, can lead us to better understand the distribution of information within a network. A very particular case is the instance of contageous outbreaks. Depending on the contact each node has with other nodes, this will directly influence the contagious outbreak development.

However, making the graph distribution even of a very simple group is no easy task., since contacts tend to radiate very quickly, and it is a very rare instance where all possible contacts can be reduced to a few hhundred individuals. Any study on the distribution of contacts will include at least a few thousand individuals to deliver any meaningful information.

Within this context, there has been the development of studies to substantiate the possibility of making approximations to the dynamics of contageous outbreaks through the use of sample individuales and the study of only these individual's first tier contacts.
Access this study here

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Paper - Complejidad, Habitos y evolucion

Complexity, Habits and Evolution
Este articulo aborda lo que es descrito como Sistemas Adaptativos Complejos. Tipicamente estos sistemas involucran poblaciones de entidades que almacenan y replican información. Sin embargo estos microaspectos, no son muy profundamente explorados normalmente, quedandose los analisis en sus macroefectos, especialmente la auto-organizacion y las propiedades emergentes. Estas omisiones son enfrentadas aquí, con un enfasis partiular en hábitos individuales y rutinas organizacionales. Se argumenta que tales consideraciones abren la posibilidad de un marco evolutivo meta-teorico para entender sistemas complejos adaptativos. Este ensayo tambien utiliza conceptos de la economia evolutiva e institucional y contrasta este enfoque con algunos supuestos estandar de la economia tradicional ortodoxa (mainstream).

This article addresses what are often described as ‘complex adaptive systems.’ Typically such systems involve populations of entities that store and replicate information. But these micro aspects are less fully explored in most accounts, which concentrate on macro-outcomes of complex adaptive systems, particularly self-organisation and emergent properties. These omissions are addressed here, with a stress on the roles of individual habits and organisational routines. It is argued that such considerations open up the possibility of a meta-theoretical evolutionary framework for understanding complex adaptive systems. This essay also makes use of some insights from evolutionary and institutional economics and contrasts its approach with some standard assumptions in mainstream economics.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

El desarrollo como una emergencia sistemica


El concepto de desarrollo ha venido experimentando cambios y ajustes a medida que se le identifica como distinto, complementario y no circumscrito solo al crecimiento economico. Una de las definiciones que creo es bastante completa indica:

“(...)hoy el desarrollo es entendido como el logro de un contexto, medio, momentum, situación, entorno, o como quiera llamarse, que facilite la potenciación del ser humano para transformarse en persona humana, en su doble dimensión, biológica y espiritual, capaz, en esta última condición, de conocer y amar. Esto significa reubicar el concepto de desarrollo en un marco constructivista, subjetivo e intersubjetivo, valorativo o axiológico, y, por cierto, endógeno, o sea, directamente dependiente de la autoconfianza colectiva en la capacidad para ‘inventar’ recursos, movilizar los ya existentes y actuar en forma cooperativa y solidaria, desde el propio territorio (...)”

En el trabajo que se presenta aca, el autor plantea una hipótesis audaz que podría tener considerables impactos tanto en el pensamiento teórico como en la práctica del desarrollo territorial. Sostiene que el desarrollo territorial debe entenderse como una propiedad emergente, como una emergencia sistémica de un sistema territorial complejo y con elevada sinergía. Ésta es una propuesta completamente opuesta a la práctica corriente de políticas y planes de fomento del desarrollo a escala subnacional, implícitamente basada todavía en un enfoque tipo “incrementalismo disjunto” de Chalers E. Lindblom. Este enfoque indica cambios graduales, politica tambien se conoce como "Gradualismo" buscando un avance "evolucionario" (en el mal entendimiento de este término) mas que "revolucionario".

Si la hipótesis pasa los filtros metodológicos usuales, habría que reentrenar radicalmente a los responsables de estos procesos, familiarizándolos con la teoría de sistemas, con la sinapsis neuronal, con la sinergía, con la lógica difusa, con la irreversibilidad temporal, con el caos, etc., con todo lo que aparece detrás de las propiedades emergentes, y habría que reformular también de forma radical la estructura burocrática y el funcionamiento de los cuerpos políticos y técnicos que se desempeñan en el terreno. El desarrollo hay que reescribirlo en el marco del paradigma de la complejidad, y en un marco humanista y constructivista como el usado por el autor.

Interesante punto de vista y que abre el debate sobre cambios de paradigma necesarios para explorar otras alternativas a lo que ya se conoce, y como bien se sabe, no es lo que necesitamos.

Pueden acceder a este Paper, en castellano, aqui.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Redes economicas, que sabemos y que necesitamos saber - Paper


En este trabajo se examina el campo de investigacion emergente de las redes economicas, y se investiga su habilidad de arrojar luz sobre temas globales y volatiles, tales como la innovacion, el credito o las inversiones, que no respetan limites geograficos o politicos.

En este contexto, el estudio de las redes economicas y su dinamica debe reflejar la complejidad de los patrones de interaccion.

Articulo en ingles. Accede aqui

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Economia de Codigo Abierto


Yochai Benkler, profesor de derecho en la Universiad de Nueva York, comenta sobre el tema que lo ha apasionado desde hace ya varios años: la economia de codigo abierto y la forma como la sociedad ha cambiado bajo la influencia de nuevas capacidades de comunicacion y el rol que cada uno esta tomando en la generacion de conocimiento.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Libro - The Biology of Business


Este es de hecho el primer libro que leí en relación a los sistemas adaptativos complejos y me dio una muy buena introducción a lo que estos sistemas son y los ámbitos en los cuales este enfoque podría ser aplicado.

Este libro constituye una compilación de papers ordenados por tópico: Lo básico de los sistemas CAS, Aplicaciones en la Economía, Liderazgo con CAS (es esto posible en equipos distribuidos de trabajo?), Knowledge Management, Características emergentes y adaptación, por ejemplo.

Este libro sienta las bases para investigaciones posteriores en estas áreas, y lo considero mas un hito filosofico sobre este tema que una guía de aplicación practica de estas tecnicas en empresas existentes.

Altamente recomendable.

Detalles
Paperback: 287 pages
Publisher: Jossey-Bass; 1 edition (October 1, 1999)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 078794324X
ISBN-13: 978-0787943240
Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 1 inches
Link en Amazon

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Behavioural Economics - Stealing


In this Video, DAn Ariely examines what are the probable bases for stealing. According to his experiments, there are several factors influencing the likelihood that someone will cheat or steal: "Distance" from money, Ingroup/Outgroup cheating incentive, anonimity, etc.

Apparently the capability to cheating is something endemic and widespread, albeit the cheating is normally small.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Book - The Origin of Wealth

The Origin of Wealth is a bestseller written around the proposal of considering the economic activity as a Complex Adaptive System. To do this Beinkocker first describes the current economic paradigm, showing its limitations, their origin and justification, as well as giving very persuasive arguments on why they are no longer useful in explaining the current situation and its evoultion.

He then jumps into the full description of complex systems with some basic distinguishing ideas of this "complexity economics"

1.-Dynamics: Model describes the economy as a dynamic non-linear system, far from equilibrium in contrast with the traditional model

2.- Agents: Model describes them as individuals making decisions with partial information, subject to errors and biases, and able to learn over time, all this in contrast with the traditional theory.

3.- Networks: Model considers explicit interactions between these individual agents. These Networks also CHANGE over time. The traditional model considers interactions between agents only through established market mechanisms (e.g. auctions)

4.- Emergence: Model makes no distintion between micro and macroeconomics. It searches for behaviours that appear "naturally" in these complex systems. No such alternative considered in the traditional theory.

5.- Evolution: Model considers an evolutionary process of differentiation, selection and amplification, providing the system novelty, and it is a mechanism for attaining order and complexity (flexibility). Traditional theory also considers no such mechanism.

Highly Recommendable.

Product Details
Paperback: 544 pages
Publisher: Harvard Business School Press; 1 edition (September 14, 2007)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1422121038
ISBN-13: 978-1422121030
Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.1 x 1.5 inches

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